Bolivians voted Sunday for a new president and parliament in elections that could see the election of a right-wing government for the first time in more than 20 years, following a poor campaign marred by the threat of an impending economic catastrophe.
The vote is one of the most important and uncertain in Bolivia's recent history, and it has the potential to destroy the long-dominant Marxist party in the Andean nation.
A startling 30% or more of voters were still unsure in the days leading up to Sunday. According to polls, former President Jorge Fernando "Tuto" Quiroga and multimillionaire businessman Samuel Doria Medina, the two front-runners on the right, were virtually tied.
In Bolivia, where around 7.9 million people are eligible to vote, voting is required.
According to Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of the advising firm Aurora Macro Strategies in New York, "I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite."
It is hardly a given that the right will triumph. Numerous lifelong supporters of the ruling Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party, which is currently in disarray, reside in rural regions and are frequently underrepresented in polling.
The opposition candidates portray the election as an opportunity to change the course of the country's history, given that the greatest economic crisis in four decades has left Bolivians squeezing through double-digit inflation, waiting hours in fuel lines, and trying to buy subsidized bread.
According to Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of the advising firm Aurora Macro Strategies in New York, "I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite."
Whether Bolivia, a country of 12 million people with the world's largest lithium reserves and vital rare earth mineral deposits, follows the growing trend in Latin America, where right-wing leaders like El Salvador's conservative populist Nayib Bukele, Ecuador's strongman Daniel Noboa, and Argentina's libertarian Javier Milei have gained popularity, will depend on the outcome.
Bolivia, which is now associated with the socialist-inspired government of Venezuela and global powers like China, Russia, and Iran, might undergo a significant geopolitical realignment if it were to adopt a right-wing leadership.
Quiroga and Doria Medina have complimented the Trump administration and pledged to mend the rift with the United States, which was caused in 2008 when the American ambassador was removed by charismatic and long-serving former President Evo Morales.
The front-runners have also called for foreign private enterprises to engage in Bolivia and develop its abundant natural resources, and they have indicated interest in doing business with Israel, which does not have diplomatic ties with Bolivia.
Bolivia's first Indigenous president, Morales, nationalized the country's oil and gas industry after he swept to power in 2006 at the beginning of the commodities boom. He then used the rich revenues to better the lives of the rural poor, build infrastructure, and combat poverty.
Bolivia's constitutional court has excluded Morales from this race after he served three consecutive terms as president and made a controversial bid for an unprecedented fourth in 2019 that sparked popular unrest and ultimately resulted in his removal.
Due to his declining popularity, his former friend turned rival, President Luis Arce, withdrawn his bid for the MAS and nominated Eduardo del Castillo, his senior minister.
