Following Prime Minister François Bayrou's unexpected decision to put his administration up for a vote of confidence in parliament, France is on the verge of another political crisis.
The prime minister's days in power appear to be coming to an end, since he has very little chance of winning the vote in a special session of the National Assembly on September 8.
At a moment of great economic, social, and geopolitical instability, France will once again be at a loss if the vote is lost, as Bayrou is anticipated to step down.
The catastrophic consequences of President Emmanuel Macron's hurried legislative dissolution in July 2024 pose a threat to institutional order and potentially public upheaval for the second time in a year.
The newly elected National Assembly was divided three ways between centrists, the populist right, and the left, making it impossible for any kind of administration to hope for a majority. This was far from providing the "clarity" that Macron sought following his loss in European polls in June 2024.
Macron was compelled to concentrate on international issues and was removed from home politics.
Michel Barnier, the first prime minister after the dissolution, fought until December before the opposition parties banded together to overthrow his budget.
His replacement now appears to be on the verge of experiencing the same thing.
The problem is that nobody thinks he'll win. Probably least of all, he himself.
Counting the numbers is simple.
Together, the four pro-government factions in the Assembly have 210 MPs. There are 353 between the left and right oppositions.
Either Marine Le Pen's National Rally (123) or the Socialist bloc (66 seats) would need to intervene for Bayrou to have any chance. National Rally's abstention would result in a close vote that could be won if a few smaller factions followed suit.
However, in order for the Socialists to have any influence, they would need to vote for the government. And that won't take place.
In fact, the entire issue is becoming more academic as opposition leaders have made it apparent over the past 24 hours that they have no intention of saving the struggling prime minister.
Maybe Bayrou is more interested in the entire nation.
Perhaps he wishes to be remembered as the person who, like Cassandra, predicted France's demise due to debt but was never taken seriously. Or maybe he's thinking about the 2027 presidential election and is hoping that by then, people will realize he was correct as always.
Unfortunately for him, however, there is little indication that the French will reconsider their debt policy. The vast majority of them merely do not believe that the problem is as urgent as Bayrou claims. Or, if they do, they fail to see why common people like them ought to bear the consequences.
With a grassroots protest movement dubbed Bloquons Tout (Let's Block Everything) drawing analogies to the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests), who so disturbed Macron's first term as president, the nation was already preparing for a dramatic autumn before this most recent turn of events.
The movement, which now has the backing of far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, called a day of protest on September 10 after being energized by Bayrou's proposals to eliminate two national holidays and limit public expenditure. Separate activities against government "austerity" are being planned by unions.
Of course, there might not have been a need for such a protest if the government had toppled on September 8.
Additionally, the nation will be thinking about other, more urgent issues.
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